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中国养老金缺口到底有多大?劳动和社会保障部前任部长郑斯林给出的数据是2.5万亿,而社保基金理事会理事长项怀诚更倾向于引用世界银行5月份提供的研究数据——9.15万亿。根据郑斯林的说法,养老金缺口主要包括两方面.一是指当年收的养老保险费不够支付当年的养老金支出。另一个是指“空账问题”。我国实行养老保险制度,按照正常流程来说,企业和个人缴纳养老保险费后,一部分拿出来用于支付已退休人员的养老金,另一部分应存在个人账户中留给自己退体后使用。但问题在于,养老金制度从开始实施到现在,这些个人账户从创建起就是空的,部分地区养老保险费一直处于“收不抵支”的状态。其实,养老金缺口大小存在不同版本并不奇怪。由于计算结果需要基于平均余命的推算,假设的条件不同,数据大小自然有差异。所谓平均余命是指一个人退休后寿命的长短。设定这个参数难就难在,它和社会经济发展水平、工资增长率密切相关,对于任何一个因素的预测即便存在毫厘之差,得出的结果就很不同。像世界银行认为,2001年到2075年间,中国养老金缺口将达9.15万亿,就是基于诸
Zheng Sulin, former minister of the Ministry of Labor and Social Security, gave 2.5 trillion figures, while Xiang Huaicheng, chairman of the Social Security Fund Council, is more likely to cite research data provided by the World Bank in May - 9.15 trillion. According to Zheng Silin, the pension gap mainly consists of two aspects: First, it means the old-age insurance premium received in the current year is not enough to pay for the current year’s pension expenses. Another refers to “open question ”. In our country, the pension insurance system is implemented. According to the normal process, after the enterprises and individuals pay the pension insurance, some of them are used to pay the pensions of those who have retired. The other part should be left in the personal account for their own use. But the problem is that from the beginning of the pension system to the present, these individual accounts have been empty since their establishment and the pension premiums in some areas have been in a “non-payment” status. In fact, it is not surprising that there are different versions of the pension gap size. As the calculation results need to be based on the average remaining life of the projections, the assumption of different conditions, the data size naturally have differences. The so-called average remaining life refers to the length of a person’s life after retirement. It is difficult to set this parameter. It is closely related to the level of social and economic development and the rate of wage increase. Even if there is a slight difference in the forecast of any factor, the result will be very different. As the World Bank believes, from 2001 to 2075, the pension gap in China will reach 9.15 trillion yuan, based on the