论文部分内容阅读
在中国的出口目的国和出口竞争国货币相对美元贬值的情况下,钉住美元将会影响出口的稳定。本文以94年以来历史数据为依据,通过对钉住美元制下的人民币实际有效汇率和同期如果采取钉住篮子货币的人民币实际有效汇率的比较,发现钉住篮子货币的实际有效汇率比钉住美元时高,体现为更强的出口竞争力;此外还观测到钉住篮子货币的实际有效汇率更加平稳,体现为别国货币贬值时钉住篮子货币对我国的出口影响较小。本文认为从贸易角度,钉住篮子货币是较为合意的汇率制度选择。
In the case of a devaluation of China’s exporting and exporting currencies relative to the U.S. dollar, pegging the U.S. dollar will affect the stability of exports. Based on the historical data of 94 years, this paper compares the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi pegged to the U.S. dollar with the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi (RMB) pegging the basket currency over the same period and finds that the real effective exchange rate of the pegged basket currency is higher than that of the peg When the dollar is high, it shows a stronger export competitiveness. In addition, it realizes that the real effective exchange rate pegged to basket currencies has been steadier, reflecting the smaller impact of pegging the basket currency to China’s exports when other countries’ currencies devalue. This paper argues that pegging the basket currency is a more desirable exchange rate system choice from a trade perspective.