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本文依据河北省新型农村社会养老保险部分试点县的数据,运用保险精算的方法,构建出新型农村社会养老保险替代率精算模型,并依据该精算模型对新型农村社会养老保险替代率进行了实证分析。我们从替代率模拟结果中可以看出,在计息利率固定时个人账户替代率水平受缴费档次、参保年龄、农民人均纯收入增长率及缴费增长率等因素的综合影响。以此为据本文提出了实行比例费率制,鼓励农民尽早开始参保并选择较高档次标准缴费等完善“新农保”制度的对策建议。
Based on the data of some pilot counties of new-type rural social endowment insurance in Hebei Province, this paper constructs the new actuarial model of social pension insurance replacement rate in rural areas by means of actuarial calculation and makes an empirical analysis based on this actuarial model for the replacement rate of new rural social endowment insurance . We can see from the simulation result of the substitution rate that the individual account substitution rate is affected by the factors such as the grade of premium, the age of insured, the growth rate of per capita net income of farmers and the contribution growth rate when the interest rate is fixed. Based on this, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on how to improve the system of “new agricultural insurance” by implementing proportional rate system, encouraging farmers to start the insurance as early as possible and choosing the higher standard of payment.