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关于服务业与居民收入的关系,服务经济理论的一个重要假设是人均收入水平是服务业发展的重要原因,即随着人均收入水平的提高,人们对服务的消费需求会增加。基于中国1978—2007年数据的格兰杰因果检验表明,无论是城镇居民还是农村居民,人均收入均不是服务业发展的原因,相反,服务业发展是人均收入变化的原因。服务业发展会带来人均收入的提高,而人均收入的提高并没有引起居民对服务消费的相应增加,其原因在于服务消费需求的复杂性以及居民消费结构的升级和居民收入水平仍落后于服务业发展。
With regard to the relationship between service industry and residents’ income, an important hypothesis of service economy theory is that per capita income level is an important reason for the development of service industry. As the per capita income level increases, people’s demand for service consumption will increase. The Granger causality test based on China’s 1978-2007 data shows that per capita income is not the cause of service industry development, both urban and rural residents. On the contrary, the development of service industry is the reason for per capita income change. The development of service industry will bring about an increase in per capita income. However, the increase in per capita income has not caused residents ’corresponding increase in service consumption due to the complexity of demand for service consumption and the upgrading of household consumption structure and the level of residents’ income still lagging behind service Industry development.