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为优化有限农业水资源量下的种植结构以实现最大经济效益,考虑种植结构优化过程中存在的水文要素与社会经济要素中存在的不确定性,构建以经济效益最大为目标的双区间两阶段随机规划模型。在农业水资源量测算时出现了双区间特点,故使用双区间理论对农业水资源量进行表征计算。将构建的模型用于黑河中游甘肃省张掖市甘州区、临泽县、高台县的5种水文年(枯水年、较枯水年、平水年、较丰水年以及丰水年)下的种植结构优化,比较了优化结果与现状水平年种植结构与经济收益。结果表明:通过双区间两阶段随机规划模型得到的3种种植结构优化方案即保守决策方案、趋于平均决策方案和乐观决策方案产生的经济效益比现状水平年种植结构下的经济效益分别提高[1.97,8.53]、[4.20,11.04]、[6.43,13.56]亿元。
In order to optimize the planting structure under the limited amount of agricultural water resources in order to achieve maximum economic benefits, considering the existing uncertainties in the hydrological and socio-economic factors in the process of plant structure optimization, a two-interval Stochastic programming model. In the calculation of agricultural water resources appeared double-interval characteristics, so the use of dual-interval theory to characterize the amount of agricultural water resources. The constructed model is applied to five kinds of hydrological years (dry year, drier year, plain water year, wetter year and wet year) in Ganzhou District, Linze County and Gaotai County, Zhangye City, Gansu Province Planting structure optimization, compared the results of the optimization and the status of the current year planting structure and economic benefits. The results show that the economic benefits of three kinds of planting structure optimization schemes obtained by the two-interval two-stage stochastic programming model are the conservative decision-making schemes, and the economic benefits of average tendering and optimistic decision schemes are higher than those under the present level [ 1.97, 8.53], [4.20,11.04], [6.43,13.56] billion.