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拉美已经历了三轮周期的资本流入,且前两轮均以重大金融危机收场。本文旨在从凯恩斯、明斯基、金德尔伯格的金融经济学的视角来剖析由这第二轮周期(包括拉美和东亚)所导致的金融危机。我将试图表明,无论这些新近开放资本项目、实现金融自由化的发展中国家试图采取何等不同的路径来解决随后资本流入激增所带来的吸收问题,它们都无法逃脱金融危机的厄运。因此,这些金融危机的频发主要是源自过度流动性且“友好监管的”金融市场所固有的内在因素,从而是完全理应遭受和基本可以预见的。并且,这些危机并非只是意味着主要市场的失灵,而是表明了系统性的市场失败。它们是友好监管且过度流动性的金融市场之下自由运作的理性经济人自发行为的后果,而历史一再表明,这些经济人从过去的错误中吸取教训的能力却相当有限。
Latin America has experienced three cycles of capital inflows, with the previous two rounds ending with a major financial crisis. This article aims to dissect the financial crisis caused by this second cycle, including Latin America and East Asia, from the perspective of financial economics of Keynes, Minsky and Kinderberg. I will try to show that no matter what these newly opened capital projects and the financially liberal developing countries are trying to adopt different pathways to absorb the absorption caused by the subsequent surge in capital inflows, they will not be able to escape the fate of the financial crisis. Therefore, the frequent occurrence of these financial crises stems mainly from the intrinsic factors inherent in over-liquidity and “friendly regulation ” financial markets and is therefore fully justified and largely foreseeable. Moreover, these crises do not simply mean failure of major markets, but rather show systemic market failures. They are the result of the spontaneous behavior of free-lanced rational economic agents in friendly, regulated and over-liquid financial markets, and history has repeatedly shown that these economists have rather limited capacity to learn from past mistakes.