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一、国债风险的表现及成因分析 (一)国债规模过大,增长过快。 1.政府年度举债规模和债务余额过大。从统计资料来看,自1981年开始发行国债以来,我国的国债增长速度很快,而且表现出一些问题(见附表1): (1)举债规模增长过快。政府债务年度举债规模由1981年的73.08亿元增长到1999年的3715.03亿元,年平均增长率达494.24%。(2)举债规模台阶式跃升。1988年,国家为了稳定金融,减少了财政向银行透支和借款,同时向金融机构发行了40亿元的财政债券,占当年全部国内债务收入的30.14%,造成了第一次跃升。1994年,在取消财政向银行透支和借款,国债成为弥补财政赤
First, the performance of national debt risk and causes (A) the size of national debt is too large, too fast growth. 1. Government annual debt scale and debt balance is too large. From the statistical data, since the issuance of treasury bonds in 1981, the treasury bonds of our country have been growing at a very fast pace and have shown some problems (see Table 1): (1) The scale of debt has been growing too fast. Annual debt scale of government debt increased from 7.308 billion yuan in 1981 to 371.003 billion yuan in 1999 with an average annual growth rate of 494.24%. (2) The scale of debt has risen step by step. In 1988, in order to stabilize finance, the state reduced overdrafts and borrowings from banks to banks, and issued 4 billion yuan of financial bonds to financial institutions, accounting for 30.14% of the total domestic debt revenue of that year, resulting in the first jump. In 1994, after canceling the financial overdraft and borrowing from banks, the national debt became compensated for the fiscal deficit