赊销中的一个关键环节是对应收帐款坏账损失进行控制。财务人员一般通过对预期坏账发生概率来估算损失。对预期坏帐损失的关注引发了一个重要问题:这种风险度量方法对实际坏帐损失的预测效果如何?本文旨在通过在各种假设的前提下对预期损失的方差进行研究来回答这一问题,这些假设包括顾客数量、规模的分布,以及他们违约风险之间的相关程度。 A key aspect of credit sales is the control of bad debt losses on accounts receivable. Financial officers generally estimate the loss by the probability of the expected bad debt occurring. The concern about the expected loss of bad debts raises an important question: How effective is the forecast of actual bad debt losses by this measure of risk? This article aims to answer this by studying the variance of expected losses under various assumptions These assumptions include the number of customers, the size of the distribution, and their correlation between the risk of default.