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本文运用ARDL协整分析,基于1998年至2011年的月度数据,对我国房地产对冲通货膨胀的能力进行了实证分析。研究发现,房地产价格增长率与实际通货膨胀率、预期外通货膨胀率两个变量在长期内形成了一个均衡关系。但是这一均衡关系并不是一个简单的正相关,不同滞后期实际通货膨胀率和预期外通货膨胀率对当期房地产价格影响的显著性和方向不尽相同。整体而言,我国房地产对冲通货膨胀的能力并不显著。
This article uses ARDL cointegration analysis, based on the monthly data from 1998 to 2011, analyzes the real estate hedging inflation in China. The study finds that the relationship between the real estate price growth rate and the real inflation rate and the expected external inflation rate have formed a balanced relationship in the long run. However, this equilibrium relationship is not a simple positive correlation. The significant difference and direction of the actual inflation rate and the expected external inflation rate in different lag periods on the current real estate prices are not the same. Overall, our real estate hedging inflation is not significant.