区域洪涝灾害恢复力时空演变研究——以巢湖流域为例

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提高自然灾害恢复力是应对气候变化和自然灾害的重要途径之一。在总结自然灾害恢复力研究的基础上,全面考虑自然、社会、经济、技术、管理等5个维度对其的影响,构建巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力评价指标体系,并基于ANP分析方法求得非独立指标间的权重,评价巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力,进而分析2000~2010年之间巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力时空演变规律,以期为提高巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力水平提供有价值的参考。研究结果表明,2000~2010年巢湖流域大部分地区洪涝灾害恢复力指数都在增长,但增长速率存在不同地区、不同维度上的明显差异;从流域平均水平来看,10 a间巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力指数在增长,其中自然维的指数是下降的,其他维度的指数为增长,并且对巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力增长正向影响最大的是经济维影响因子,而自然维的影响因子对恢复力增长起到了负向作用;2000~2010年巢湖流域洪涝灾害各等级恢复力分布格局变化不大,但其他地区与合肥市辖区恢复力的差距在拉大。 Improving resilience of natural disasters is one of the important ways to deal with climate change and natural disasters. On the basis of summarizing the research on the resilience of natural disasters, this paper comprehensively considers the impact of five dimensions of nature, society, economy, technology and management on it, constructs the evaluation index system of resilience of flood disasters in Chaohu Lake Basin, We can evaluate the resilience of flood disasters in the Chaohu Lake Basin, and then analyze the temporal and spatial variation of resilience of flood and waterlogging disasters in the Chaohu Lake Basin from 2000 to 2010, in order to provide valuable reference for improving the resilience of flood and water logging in Chaohu Lake Basin. The results show that the resilience index of flood disaster in most parts of Chaohu Lake Basin increased from 2000 to 2010, but there were significant differences in growth rate in different regions and different dimensions. From the average level in the basin, flood and flood disasters in the Chaohu Lake Basin Resilience index is growing, of which the index of natural dimension is decreasing, the index of other dimensions is increasing, and the economic dimension impact factor is the most positive factor affecting the growth resilience of flood and flood disasters in Chaohu Lake basin. However, The growth of power played a negative role. The distribution of resilience at all levels of flood disasters in Chaohu Basin from 2000 to 2010 changed little, but the gap between resilience in other areas and Hefei was widening.
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