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运用LMDI分解模型,对1995年～2007年我国制造业碳排放变动特征及其影响因素进行研究,结果表明:我国制造业碳排放在考察期内呈“U”型变动趋势,且存在较大的行业差异,能源密集型行业碳排放总量较大,能源效率、能耗总量与结构上的行业差异是造成这一状况的根源;其次,经济总量是促进碳排放逐年增长的主要因素,且呈逐年增长的发展趋势,其年均贡献达到48.51%;产业结构调整、能源技术进步与能源结构优化是减缓碳排放的主要因素,其中以能源技术进步的减排效果最为显著;制造业减排的关键在于重点耗能部门的结构调整和技术进步,与煤炭等高碳能源的高效、清洁利用。
Using LMDI decomposition model, this paper studies the characteristics of carbon emissions in manufacturing industry in China from 1995 to 2007 and their influencing factors. The results show that the carbon emission in manufacturing industry in our country shows a trend of “U ” during the period of investigation, Large industry differences, large total carbon emissions from energy-intensive industries, and differences in energy efficiency, total energy consumption and structural industries are the source of this situation. Secondly, the total economy is the major contributor to the year-on-year growth of carbon emissions Year-on-year growth trend, with an average annual contribution of 48.51%. Adjustment of industrial structure, improvement of energy technology and optimization of energy structure are the main factors for reducing carbon emissions. Among them, energy-saving technologies have the most significant emission reduction effect. Manufacturing The key to industry emission reduction lies in the structural adjustment and technological progress of key energy-consuming sectors and the efficient and clean utilization of high-carbon energy sources such as coal.