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运行作物模型需要大量的输入变量。为了方便模型用户建立模型变量数据库 ,研究估计了作物模型 ALMANAC主要模型输入变量的重要程度。根据在美国德克萨斯州 8个县主要玉米品种的田间试验资料 ,首先建立了模拟 10年 (1989～ 1998年 )玉米和高粱产量的标准数据库 ,模拟结果与实产吻合程度很好。以此为基础 ,分别分析了产量对太阳辐射、降雨、土壤层厚度、土壤有效水分以及径流曲线数变化的敏感性。结果表明 ,径流曲线数变化对于模拟结果的影响最大 ,其次分别是降雨和太阳辐射。玉米对所有变量变化的敏感性都大于高粱。获得合适的降雨资料 ,准确估计径流曲线数 ,对于作物生长模拟十分重要。
Running crop models requires a large number of input variables. In order to facilitate model users to establish a model variable database, the study estimated the importance of input variables of the ALMANAC main model of the crop model. Based on the field trial data of major maize varieties in eight counties of Texas in the United States, a standard database of maize and sorghum production for 10 years (1989-1998) was first established and the simulated results were in good agreement with the actual ones. Based on this, the sensitivity of yield to changes in solar radiation, rainfall, soil layer thickness, soil available moisture and runoff curve number were analyzed separately. The results show that the change of runoff curve has the greatest influence on the simulation results, followed by rainfall and solar radiation respectively. Corn is more sensitive to changes in all variables than sorghum. Obtaining proper rainfall data and accurately estimating the number of runoff curves are very important for crop growth simulation.