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随着信息通信产业的高速发展,新技术不断涌现,如NGN(下一代网络)、3G、3G演进及NGBW(下一代宽带无线)成为目前信息通信业关注和讨论的热点技术。我国信息通信产业经过不懈的自主创新,开发出一批属于自己的新技术和标准,如3G标准之一的TD-SCDMA标准、数字电视标准、龙芯等,但在我们欣慰的同时我们也应该清醒地看到与世界技术强国的差距,比如3G标准的技术预见、研发、商用化方面都落后于发达国家,那么如何在未来新技术研发、产业化方面实现跨越式发展,则需要我们长期开展关键技术的技术预见,其目的是通过技术预见来发现未来新科技革命所孕育的“技术机遇”,从而使我国在未来国际竞争中处于有利地位。所以技术预见理论的发展是我国的自主创新战略的一个组成部分。技术预见理论与实践可以帮助我国集中人力、物力、财力发展具有前瞻性的关键技术和通用技术,实现我国科技自主创新发展战略目标。
With the rapid development of the information and communication industry, new technologies such as NGN (Next Generation Network), 3G and 3G evolution and NGBW (Next-Generation Broadband Wireless) have become the hotspot technologies that the information and communication industry is paying attention to and discussing. China’s information and communication industry through unremitting innovation, developed a number of their own new technologies and standards, such as one of the 3G standards TD-SCDMA standards, digital television standards, Godson etc., but we are pleased at the same time we should be awake To see the gap with the world’s technological power, such as the technical predictions of the 3G standard, research and development, commercialization lags behind the developed countries, then how to achieve leapfrog development in the future of new technology research and development, industrialization, we need long-term key The technical foresight of technology aims at discovering the “technological opportunities” conceived by the new scientific and technological revolution in the future through technological foresight so that our country will be in a good position in the future international competition. Therefore, the development of technical foresight theory is an integral part of our independent innovation strategy. Technology foresight theory and practice can help our country focus on human resources, material and financial resources to develop forward-looking key technologies and common technologies to achieve China’s strategic independent innovation and development goals.