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洪灾危险性分析是洪灾风险研究的重要内容,洪灾源、传播途径及承灾体各部分之间存在着复杂的相互作用。采用复杂网络工具进行分析,可以更好地反映问题的本质特征。基于二维SPR概念模型,提出了一种利用复杂网络的洪灾危险性分析方法。首先,将研究区域按用地类型划分成分析单元,并根据单元之间的邻接关系辨识相互之间的影响方式;利用TOPSIS多属性决策工具计算以流量为基础的综合指标,以表征单元之间的相互影响强度;而后结合DEMATEL方法,计算分析单元的影响度、被影响度指标,并以水位差的3/2次幂函数表征洪水强度指标,定义洪水强度与被影响度乘积为各单元的危险性指数。该方法丰富了洪灾危险性分析的方法和内容,为防灾减灾措施的采取提供了新的视角。最后,以一个简化的案例分析,展示了该方法的应用步骤。
Flood risk analysis is an important part of flood risk research. There are complex interactions between flood sources, transmission routes and various parts of the disaster-bearing body. Using complex network tools for analysis can better reflect the nature of the problem. Based on the two-dimensional SPR concept model, a flood risk analysis method based on complex network is proposed. First, the study area is divided into analysis units according to the type of land use, and the mutual influence is identified according to the adjacency relationship among the units. The TOPSIS multi-attribute decision-making tool is used to calculate the comprehensive index based on the flow to characterize the inter-unit Interaction strength; and then combined with DEMATEL method, calculation and analysis of the unit of influence, the impact of indicators, and the water level difference of 3/2 power function of flood intensity index, the definition of flood intensity and the degree of impact of the risk for each unit Sex index. The method enriches the method and content of flood risk analysis and provides a new perspective for the adoption of disaster prevention and mitigation measures. Finally, with a simplified case analysis, shows the application of the method steps.