本文根据地震构造背景和小震活动分布,提出了初选“窗口”的原则与有效性估计的方法。四川地区检测结果,存在持续型、突发型、信号型三类前兆小震活动窗或敏感部位,文中给出了单个和多个“窗口”反映某区地震的概率。最后就“窗口”的震前“效应”与应用上存在的问题作了讨论。 Based on the seismotectonic background and the distribution of small earthquakes, this paper puts forward the principle of “primary window” and the method of validity estimation. There are three types of precursory small earthquake active window or sensitive part of the continuous, sudden and signal type in Sichuan Province. In this paper, the probability of single and multiple “windows” reflecting the earthquake in a certain area is given. Finally, the “window” before the earthquake “effect” and the application of the existing problems were discussed.