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本文利用全球51个国家或地区1993年至2011年的季度数据重点探讨了国际大宗商品价格冲击对国内通货膨胀的影响作用。在Phillips曲线所突出强调的影响因素中,本文应用现有相关研究结果扩展考察包括全球大宗商品价格变化在内的一些非货币因素的影响效应。在应用多种估计技术下,本文研究表明在不同的大宗商品价格变化指标中食品价格变化在统计意义上显著地影响国内通货膨胀,而且该指标纳入到真实模型的后验包含概率较高。此外,产出缺口、贸易开放度、汇率制度安排、通货膨胀目标制以及政府规制质量等变量也显著影响着国内通货膨胀。
This article uses quarterly data from 51 countries and regions around the world from 1993 to 2011 to focus on the impact of international commodity price shocks on domestic inflation. Among the influential factors highlighted by the Phillips curve, this paper expands the impact of some non-monetary factors, including global commodity price changes, with existing relevant research results. Under the application of a variety of estimation techniques, this study shows that food price changes significantly affect domestic inflation statistically in different indicators of commodity price changes, and the posteriori inclusion probability of the indicator in real models is high. In addition, variables such as the output gap, the degree of trade openness, the exchange rate system arrangement, the inflation target system and the quality of government regulation have also significantly affected domestic inflation.