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文章就当前国际老年学界对老年人健康特别是失能状况变动趋势的研究动态进行了回顾。其初步结论是自20世纪90年代以来,许多国家的老年人失能比例下降,但下降的原因尚不清楚。许多学者建议在以后的调查设计中应搜集一些影响功能状况及针对性治疗等方面的辅助信息。文章还回顾了目前国际老年学界预测未来老年人健康状况的多种方法,结果显示目前的预测虽然较以往有了很大的拓展但仍存在不足。
The article reviews current research trends in the international geriatric community about the changing trends of the elderly’s health, especially their incapacity. Its initial conclusion is that since the 1990s, the proportion of the elderly in the world has been declining, but the reasons for the decline are not yet clear. Many scholars suggest that some supplementary information about functional status and targeted treatment should be collected in the future investigation and design. The article also reviews various current methods for predicting the health status of the elderly in the future by the international geriatric community. The results show that although the current forecast has greatly expanded in the past, there are still some shortcomings.