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本文结合我国设计洪水频率计算方法的实际,用统计试验法求解期望概率,系统地研究了设计洪水标准与频率计算方法之间的关系。指出在小样本估计的情况下,我国现行洪水频率计算方法不能满足设计标准的要求乃是普遍存在的问题。本文证明当总体为皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布时,在一定的参数估计方法下,期望概率只与总体分布参数C_s~0、样本容量n和给定的设计频率p有关。据此,构造了统计试验研究的教学模型;详细分析了期望概率与各影响因素之间的关系;给出了设计标准与频率计算方法之间的一些定量联系指标;制成了一套完整的诺模图。这对于今后修改设计标准和频率计算方法规范,对于水利水电工程设计中有关设计洪水方面的决策,都有实际应用的价值。
Combining with the actuality of calculation method of design flood frequency in our country, this paper solves the expectation probability by statistical test method, and systematically studies the relationship between design flood standard and frequency calculation method. It is pointed out that under the condition of small sample estimation, the current calculation method of flood frequency in our country can not meet the requirements of design standards. However, it is a common problem. This paper proves that the expected probability is only related to the overall distribution parameter C_s ~ 0, the sample size n and the given design frequency p under a certain parameter estimation method when the overall distribution is Pearson Ⅲ type. Accordingly, the teaching model of statistical experimental research is constructed. The relationship between the expected probability and various influencing factors is analyzed in detail. Some quantitative linkages between design standards and frequency calculation methods are given. A complete set of Norm diagram. This will have practical application value for the future revision of the design standards and frequency calculation method specifications for the design of water conservancy and hydropower projects on the design of flood decision.