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对于火灾损失的预测,由于诸多不确定因素,导致火灾损失预测具有“部分信息已知,部分信息未知”的“小样本”、“贫信息”不确定性,同时,在进行预测时要用精确值来表示各种事件的概率显然是不切实际的,而用模糊数或预言变量来表示他们则显得更为合理。同时,由于存在时间这一变化基准,要综合考虑时间、成本、信息等要素对火灾损失预测的影响。鉴于这种原因,本文考虑火灾损失为贫信息不确定性、预测分析模糊的方法问题。
For the prediction of fire loss, due to many uncertainties, the fire loss prediction has the uncertainty of “small sample” and “poor information” that “part of the information is known and some of the information is unknown”, and at the same time, It is clearly unrealistic to value the probability of events, and it is more reasonable to represent them with fuzzy numbers or predictive variables. At the same time, due to the change of time base, we should comprehensively consider the impact of time, cost, information and other factors on fire loss prediction. For this reason, this paper considers the problem of fire loss as the uncertainty of the information of the poor and the prediction and analysis of the fuzzy method.