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以可靠度理论为基础，对复杂地基上兴建的高土石坝的坝体稳定性及坝体地基稳定性进行了分析研究。使用Ｊａｃｏｂｉ正交变换法将相关的随机变量转变为相互独立的随机变量，采用ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ方法计算可靠度。以冶勒水库堆石坝为例，使用定值方法和可靠度方法对土石坝稳定性进行了分析计算。结果表明，在相同的条件下，定值法计算得到的稳定临界滑面不唯一，且各临界滑面的失效概率不一致。定值法中使用的安全系数与其滑面稳定的失效概率不完全等价。可见，采用可靠度方法分析坝体稳定是很有必要的。
Based on the theory of reliability, the stability of dam body and the stability of dam - foundation are studied on the high earth - rockfill dam constructed on complex foundation. Using the Jacobi orthogonal transform method, the related random variables are transformed into independent random variables, and the Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the reliability. Taking Yele reservoir rockfill dam as an example, the stability of the earth-rockfill dam is analyzed and calculated by using the fixed value method and the reliability method. The results show that under the same conditions, the stable critical slip surface calculated by fixed value method is not unique, and the failure probability of each critical slip surface is not consistent. The safety factor used in the valuation method is not exactly equivalent to the failure probability of its stable sliding surface. Can be seen, the use of reliability analysis of dam stability is necessary.