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本文用二阶模糊综合评判模型和模糊合成综合评判模型,对云南省通海、永善大关、龙陵、思茅等地震发生前若干年内震中区周围100公里范围内弱震活动频次的各种特征变化进行识别,建立了它们的隶属函数和一阶、二阶模糊评判函数,构成评判模型,用此对普洱、禄劝、盐源地震进行预测,得到较为满意的结果。文章叙述了模型的建立方法,对比讨论了它的预测效果,指出了进一步完善的途径。
In this paper, we use the second-order fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and fuzzy synthetic evaluation model to analyze the characteristics of the weak earthquakes within 100 km around the epicenter within a few years before the occurrence of the Tonghai, Yongshan, Longshan, Simao and other earthquakes in Yunnan Province The membership function, the first order and the second order fuzzy evaluation function are established to form the evaluation model. By using this, the Pu’er, Luquan and Yanyuan earthquakes are predicted, and the satisfactory results are obtained. The article describes the establishment of the model, compared its forecasting effect, points out the way to further improve.