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从中强震成组孕育出发,研究了南黄海及沿岸地区地震活动时空动态图象扫描特征,探索了该区地震危险性预测的有关问题。结果表明,该区20多年来4级地震活动总体上呈相对平稳状态,但在不同时段则出现不断演变迁移的4级地震局部集中区及低b值区等异常区域,5～6级中强地震大都发生于异常区的边缘或附近;异常区内4级地震累积频度往往呈非线性指数加速,中强震发生于4级地震非线性指数加速的后期或其后的异常平静期中。这种地震活动时空非均匀现象具有一定的稳定性和重现性,对于中期至中短期地震危险性预测及缩小危险区范围具有一定的实用意义。
Based on the grouping of strong earthquakes, the temporal and spatial dynamic image features of seismic activity in the southern Yellow Sea and its coastal areas are studied, and the related problems of earthquake risk prediction in this area are explored. The results show that the grade 4 earthquakes in this area have generally been relatively stable over the past 20 years. However, in the different periods of time, there occur evolving area-specific 4-level earthquakes and low-b-value anomalies. Most of the earthquakes occurred at or near the edge of the anomalous zone. The cumulative frequency of the M 4 earthquakes in the anomalous zone tends to be accelerated by a non-linear exponential rate. The moderate-moderate earthquakes occurred during the later or later non-linear exponential acceleration of the quakes. This kind of spatiotemporal nonuniformity of seismicity has a certain stability and reproducibility, which is of practical significance for the medium to short-term earthquake risk prediction and narrowing the scope of the danger zone.