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文章利用2015年发展中国家(地区)的出版物出口贸易流量及相关数据构建了发展中国家(地区)出版物出口贸易决定方程,研究发现出口国和进口国经济规模以及出口国经济发展水平对出版物出口贸易流量有显著正向影响,出口国和进口国之间的地理距离对出版物出口贸易流量有显著负向影响。然后,利用发展中国家(地区)出版物出口贸易决定方程对中国出版物出口潜力进行了测算,将中国对主要贸易伙伴国(地区)的出版物出口潜力划分为潜力待开发型、潜力成长型和潜力成熟型3类。最后提出了加强中国出版物出口贸易的对策建议。
Using the export trade flows of publications in developing countries (regions) in 2015 and related data, the paper establishes the export trade decision equation for developing countries (regions) and finds that the economies of both exporting and importing countries and the level of economic development in exporting countries Publication export trade flows have a significant positive impact, and the geographical distance between exporting and importing countries has a significant negative impact on export trade flows of publications. Then, using the export trade decision equation of developing country / region’s publications to measure the export potential of China’s publications, the potential export potential of China’s publications for major trading partner countries and regions is classified as potential to be developed and potential growth And the potential of mature type 3. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions on how to strengthen the export trade of Chinese publications.