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关于金融发展与经济增长的关系,不同学者的研究结果存在较大矛盾.采用格兰杰因果检验、协整、岭回归、成长曲线、聚类分析综合研究了二者之间的关系,发现银行贷款余额比率及广义货币发行量比率是经济增长的格兰杰原因,但经济增长不是广义货币发行量比率和银行贷款余额比率的格兰杰原因.工商业贷款余额不是经济增长的格兰杰原因,但经济发展对工商业贷款的增长有一定的贡献.广义货币发行量比率和银行贷款余额比率对经济增长都有显著的贡献,前者略大,工商业贷款比率对经济增长有负面影响.银行贷款余额的成长曲线和经济增长是同步的,但是广义货币发行量在改革开放初期滞后于经济增长,近几年又快于经济增长,二者并不同步,主要与中国实行的投资为主的经济发展路径及过度的货币发行量有关.作者认为有3个原因导致不同学者对金融发展与经济增长关系矛盾的结果,一是金融发展的度量方法存在困难;二是短期研究数据难以获得;三是研究方法本身存在的偏误问题.
With regard to the relationship between financial development and economic growth, there are major contradictions in the research results of different scholars.Combining the relationship between them through Granger causality test, co-integration, ridge regression, growth curve and cluster analysis, Loan ratio and the ratio of broad money circulation are the Granger causes of economic growth, but economic growth is not the Granger reason for the ratio of broad money circulation and bank loan balance.The business loan balance is not Granger reason of economic growth, However, the economic development contributes a little to the growth of industrial and commercial loans.The contributions of generalized currency circulation and bank loan balance have significant contributions to economic growth, while the former is slightly larger and the ratio of industrial and commercial loans has a negative impact on economic growth. The growth curve and economic growth are in synchronicity. However, broad money circulation lags behind economic growth in the early stage of reform and opening up and is faster than economic growth in recent years. The two are not in sync with China’s investment-oriented economic development path And excessive currency circulation.The author thinks there are three reasons that lead to different scholars’financial development and The contradiction between economic growth results, first, there are difficulties in the measurement of financial development; second, short-term data is difficult to obtain; Third, the problem of bias in the research method itself.