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2009年甲型H1N1流感通过公路交通在我国城镇间广泛传播并造成巨大损失,掌握其传播规律对城市化建设和减轻疫情造成的损失具有重要意义.本文以长沙市为研究区,分析了甲型H1N1流感沿公路交通传播的规律及风险因子,构建了结合扩散速度和人群流动的疫情扩散模型,模拟甲型H1N1流感在长沙市城镇间的传播过程.结果表明,公路沿线及道路交叉区域发病率较其他区域高,高速公路和县道分别在疫情快速发展期和顶峰期对疫病的传播扩散产生重要影响,长途汽车站在城镇间疫病的传播过程中是重要的风险因子.模型结合了疫情传播强度预测与流行区域预测,较其他模型更完整地还原了疫病的时空传播过程.
In 2009, the Influenza A (H1N1) virus spread widely among cities and towns in our country via road traffic and caused huge losses, and it is of great significance to master the transmission laws to the urbanization and reduce the losses caused by epidemic situation.Taking Changsha as the research area, H1N1 influenza along the road traffic transmission rules and risk factors to build a combination of diffusion speed and crowd flow of epidemic diffusion model to simulate the spread of influenza A (H1N1) in urban Changsha between the results show that the incidence of road crossings and road areas Compared with the other regions, highways and county roads have significant impact on the spread of epidemic in the rapid and peak periods of the epidemic, respectively. The bus station is an important risk factor in the transmission of epidemic among cities and towns. The model combines epidemic situation transmission Intensity prediction and epidemic regional prediction, restore the space-time transmission of the disease more completely than other models.