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根据伊塞克湖1950—2010年期间的年平均水位资料,采用趋势分析和小波分析,对伊塞克湖年平均水位变化时间序列进行研究,从而揭示伊塞克湖水位变化的总体趋势和周期性变化规律。结果表明:(1)1950—2010年期间,伊塞克湖水位总体呈下降趋势,共下降1.27m,1950—1997年水位持续下降,1998年开始转为上升。(2)20世纪90年代之前,人类活动是引起湖泊水位下降的主要驱动因子;20世纪90年代后,在全球气候变化的作用下,该地区降水量的增加影响到径流量的增加,从而引起湖泊水位的缓慢上升。(3)1950—2010年间的周期性分析结果显示,伊塞克湖年平均水位存在21a的主周期,并且2010年以后的一段时间伊塞克湖水位处于偏高时期。
Based on the annual average water level data of Issykkala between 1950 and 2010, trend analysis and wavelet analysis are used to study the time series of the annual mean water level change of Issyk Kra, so as to reveal the general trend and period of the change of Issykkad water level The law of sexual change. The results show that: (1) During the period of 1950-2010, the water level of Issyk-Kulkilipu Lake generally decreased, with a total decrease of 1.27m. From 1950 to 1997, the water level continued to decline and began to rise in 1998. (2) Before the 1990s, human activities were the main driving factors that caused the water level drop in the lake. After the 1990s, due to the global climate change, the increase of precipitation in the area affected the increase of runoff and caused Slow rise of lake water level. (3) The results of periodic analysis from 1950 to 2010 show that the annual average water level of Issyk-Kul exists in the main period of 21 a, and the water level of Issyk Khuk Lake in a period of time after 2010 is in a high period.