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事故的预测及预报是两个不同的概念。探讨了预测预报的方法，指出了伤亡事故的发生服从威布尔分布，事故发生概率可由其分布函数求得。用实例说明了事故的预测预报方法。
Prediction and prediction of accidents are two different concepts. The method of forecasting and forecast is discussed. It is pointed out that the occurrence of casualty obeys Weibull distribution, and the probability of accident can be obtained by its distribution function. An example is given to illustrate the method of accident forecasting.