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中国的南水北调工程,如果全部实施,每年可从长江流域调水400-500亿m3到华北平原,以缓解华北地区的3-3.25亿人的水短缺问题。南水北调工程第一阶段(调水200亿m3/年)建设,已于2002年或2003年开工(已在2002年12月开工。校译者注),需投入170亿美元建设资金(包括70亿美元的附属项目资金)。世界银行最近研究认为“该项目在经济上有较大效益”。但世界自然基金会却反对该结论,争议较大。笔者认为该项目在经济上投资昂贵,并需要移民30万人,调水价格也很难为农业所承担;但是,中国在社会经济发展方面正发生着史无前例的变化,而华北平原严重水短缺已引发了一系列严重的问题。通过将当地灌溉用水重新配置并转让给生活和工业用户以及改善环境用水,实际操作是不可能的。而南水北调工程的实施可在很大程度上缓解这些矛盾,从这个意义(更多的是从政治上和实际需要出发)说,而不是严格从经济上或粮食安全的角度考虑,中国政府决策实施此项目是完全可以理解的。
China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project, if fully implemented, can divert 40-500 billion m3 of water from the Yangtze River to the North China Plain each year to ease the water shortage of 3-3.25 million people in North China. Construction of the first stage of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (with a water transfer of 20 billion m3 / year) started in 2002 or 2003 (started in December 2002) and requires a total investment of 17 billion U.S. dollars (including 7 billion yuan US dollars subsidiary project funds). According to a recent study by the World Bank, “the project is economically significant.” However, WWF objected to this conclusion and the controversy was great. The author believes that the project is economically expensive and requires the relocation of 300,000 people. It is also very difficult for the water price to be borne by agriculture; however, China is undergoing unprecedented changes in social and economic development. However, severe water shortages in the North China Plain have triggered A series of serious problems. It is not possible to do so by relocating and transferring local irrigation water to living and industrial users and improving the environment. However, the implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project can largely alleviate these contradictions. From this point of significance (more based on the political and practical needs) rather than strictly on the economic or food security perspective, the Chinese government implements the policy This project is perfectly understandable.