一、香港近期经济形势的基本判断 今年是香港经济面临严峻考验的1年。金融风暴带来的负面影响在今年陆续浮现,加之5月以来的印尼危机等外围因素的影响,香港经济目前进入艰难的调整期。 第一,首李经济出现负增长。今年首季东南亚国家和地区的经济增长速度普遍下调,部分国家和地区出现了负增长,港府5月29日公布,香港经济出现了从1985年以来的首次负增长为-2％。 第二,息口高企,信贷紧缩,银根短绌。从去年金融风暴爆发以来,为捍卫联系汇率银行曾两度大幅提高利率,虽然年初曾下调1/4厘,息口高企趋势仍未改变。与此同时,各大银行均意识到资金充足的重要,以往银行资本充足比率达8％,最近金管局建议提高至10～12％,使银行贷款政策更趋审慎,令本已收缩的信贷市场雪上加霜,市场流动资金大幅减少,令香港出现银根严重弛绌问题,企业融资更加困难,借贷成本提高。 第三,股市、楼市、旅游业急速下滑。5月初受印尼局势影响港股跌破万点大关,5月中旬在各大地产发展商掀起一轮减价战影响下,曾跌至9200点获支持,至5月27日受传言港府公布香港首季经济出现负增长和全球股市大幅下挫影响,恒生指数跌穿9000点,当日下跌近500点。 金融风暴以后,楼市一有大幅下调,到5月份爆发了各大地产发展商减价战,使楼市持续下跌。目前普? I. Basic Judgment of the Recent Economic Situation in Hong Kong This year is one year when the economy of Hong Kong is facing a severe test. The adverse effects of the financial turmoil have emerged one after another this year. Coupled with the external factors such as the crisis in Indonesia since May, Hong Kong’s economy has now entered a difficult period of adjustment. First, there is negative growth in the economy of Prime Minister Lee. In the first quarter of this year, the pace of economic growth in Southeast Asian countries and regions generally dropped. Some countries and regions experienced negative growth. On May 29, the Hong Kong government announced that Hong Kong’s economy had its first negative growth since 1985, -2%. Second, high interest rates, a tight credit crunch and a shortfall in money supply. Since the outbreak of the financial turmoil last year, the bank has sharply raised interest rates twice in the course of safeguarding the linked exchange rate. Although the figure was 1/4% lower at the beginning of the year, the trend of high interest rates has not changed. In the meantime, all major banks are aware of the importance of adequate capitalization. In the past, the capital adequacy ratio of banks reached 8%. Recently, the proposal of the HKMA has been raised to 10-12%. This has led to more cautious bank lending policies and the shrinking credit markets As a result, the market liquidity dropped significantly, causing a serious monetary shortening problem in Hong Kong. As a result, it was more difficult for enterprises to raise funds and borrowing costs increased. Third, the stock market, property market, tourism, a sharp decline. Affected by the Indonesian situation in early May, Hong Kong stocks fell below the 10,000 mark. In mid-May, under the influence of a round of price war between major real estate developers, they fell to 9200 points and were supported by the rumors that the Hong Kong Government released on May 27 In the first quarter of Hong Kong, with negative growth in the economy and a sharp fall in global stock markets, the Hang Seng fell below 9,000 points and dropped nearly 500 points that same day. After the financial turmoil, the real estate market saw a drastic downward adjustment. As a result, the war broke out in May and the property market continued to plummet. Currently Pu?