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以洪水风险调度理论为研究基础,针对汛限水位变幅前后导致水库防洪系统风险变化,构建一套较完善的汛限水位变幅控制风险分析体系,体系包括水库系统风险分析方法、风险计算模型及实施原则。笔者通过实例运用,分析具体水库汛限水位变幅前后的防洪目标风险率增量,为水库风险分析提供了可靠的参考依据。
Based on the theory of flood risk dispatch, this paper constructs a set of perfect risk analysis system for flood control water level control based on the risk changes of flood control system before and after the flood control water level fluctuating. The system includes the reservoir system risk analysis method, risk calculation model And the implementation of the principle. Through the use of examples, the author analyzes the increment of risk target of flood control before and after the flood control water level of specific reservoirs provides a reliable reference for reservoir risk analysis.