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根据诱发地质灾害的内外因素建立地质灾害预警模型,评价河南省地质灾害的危险性。选取地形地貌、地质构造、岩土体类型、植被分布、水土流失、降雨和人类生产活动7个影响地质灾害的因素,建立了地质灾害预警的BP神经网络模型。根据监测数据进行训练和检验后,采用该模型对河南省汛期地质灾害进行预测,发现预测结果与实际情况基本一致。研究表明,建立的BP神经网络模型作为一种灾害预警的探索和尝试,具有一定的适用性和推广价值,可以作为地质灾害危险性评价预测方法的补充。
According to the internal and external factors of induced geological disasters, an early warning model of geological hazards is established to evaluate the danger of geological disasters in Henan Province. Seven factors affecting geohazards such as topography, geology, geotechnical types, vegetation distribution, soil erosion, rainfall and human activities were selected to establish a BP neural network model for early warning of geological disasters. After training and testing according to the monitoring data, this model is used to forecast the geological disasters in flood season in Henan province. The results show that the prediction results are in good agreement with the actual situation. The research shows that the established BP neural network model as a kind of disaster early warning exploration and attempt has some applicability and popularization value, which can be used as a supplement to the forecasting method of geological hazard risk assessment.