用Morishita播散指数研究了 1998年 1月 10日河北省张北M6 2地震的发展过程。发现从震前 3年半开始 ,Morishita播散指数异常空间演化经历了两次过程。即 1994年 8月至 1996年 1月 ,在震中周围 (2°× 2°内 )从无异常 ,到震中一侧出现异常 ,发展到异常向震中集中的过程。 1996年 2月至 1998年 1月 9日 ,又经历了无异常 ,到震中一侧出现异常 ,异常向震中发展 ,最后形成包围震中的态势 ,直到发震。Morishita播散指数的空间异常演化特征 ,有可能揭示张北地震的孕震阶段性发展过程 ,并为历史上无强震、且地表构造发育不明显的地区的破坏性地震的预测 ,提供了新思路 The Morishita dispersion index was used to study the development of the M6 ​​2 Zhangbei earthquake in Hebei Province on January 10, 1998. Found that three and a half years before the earthquake, the anomalous spatial evolution of the Morishita dispersion index went through two stages. From August 1994 to January 1996, from no anomaly around the epicenter (within 2 ° × 2 °) to anomalous to the epicenter, the process of abnormal concentration to the epicenter was developed. From February 1996 to January 9, 1998, it experienced no anomalies. It experienced anomalies to the epicenter of the epicenter and developed anomalously to the epicenter, finally forming the situation that surrounded the epicenter until the epicenter broke out. The spatial anomaly evolution of the Morishita index is likely to reveal the seismogenic stages of the Zhangbei earthquake and to provide a new prediction for the devastating earthquake in areas that have historically not been strong earthquakes and have negligible surface texture development Ideas