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本文依据农业保险促进农业产出的理论基础,选用1985-2012年河北省农业保险费收入和农业GDP的年度数据,做了实证检验。得出的结论是:河北省农业保险费收入和农业GDP之间不存在协整关系,回归结果也表明二者相关性不大,甚至不存在Granger因果关系,也即农业保险促进农业产出的作用并没有充分发挥出来。然后分析了原因,并从农业保险的角度提出几点政策建议。
Based on the theoretical basis of agricultural insurance to promote agricultural output, this paper selects the annual data of agricultural premium income and agricultural GDP from 1985 to 2012 in Hebei Province and makes empirical tests. The conclusion is that there is no cointegration relationship between agricultural insurance premium income and agricultural GDP in Hebei Province, and the regression results also show that the correlation between the two is insignificant, or even there is no Granger causality, that is, agricultural insurance promotes agricultural output The role did not give full play to it. Then it analyzes the reasons and puts forward some policy recommendations from the perspective of agricultural insurance.