论文部分内容阅读
目的:了解2009—2019监测年度杭州市流感流行特征及变化趋势，为流感防治工作的科学决策提供参考依据。方法:收集并分析2009—2019监测年度杭州市的流感样病例（ILI）监测数据资料、流感病毒检测结果及ILI暴发疫情，并进行ILI预警分析。结果:2009—2019监测年度，杭州市报告ILI共计1 236 320例，ILI病例数占门急诊病例就诊总数的比例（ILI%）为2.59%。每年12月至次年2月为杭州市流感样病例发病高峰期，ILI%与流感病毒阳性率间变化趋势存在相关性（n r=0.636，n P<0.01），部分年份出现夏季高峰；ILI发病数最高的年龄组为0~4岁组（48.76%）；10年间ILI各年龄组构成不全相同，差异具有统计学意义（n χn 2=27 637.981，n P<0.01）。10年间病原学检测平均阳性率为22.07%，三种型别交替占优，检出最多的型别为甲型H3N2型（1 599/3 973，40.25%）；共报告ILI暴发疫情88起，主要发生在12月和1月，其中小学报告的ILI暴发疫情最多，为64起（72.73%），预警信号多出现在1月和2月。n 结论:杭州市流感病例发病以冬春季为主，不同病原型别交替出现，需及时进行预警预测，加强对重点人群的监测。“,”Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics and trend of influenza in Hangzhou from 2009 to 2019, so as to provide data support for prevention and control strategy of influenza.Methods:The data of cases with influenza-like illness (ILI) , pathogen surveillance and ILI outbreaks in Hangzhou from 2009 to 2019 were collected and statistically analyzed. Then, the early warning of ILI was analyzed.Results:During 2009 and 2019, there were 1 236 320 ILI cases reported in Hangzhou, with the proportion of ILI in the total number of outpatients and emergency cases (ILI%) of 2.59%. The epidemic peak of ILI in Hangzhou was from December to February of the following year, and the ILI% was consistent with the trend of pathogen positive rate (n r=0.636, n P<0.01). Summer peak was observed in some years. The majority of ILI cases reported was from the age group of 0-4 years (48.76%). The composition of each age group of ILI during the 10 years had a significant difference (n χn 2=27 637.981, n P<0.01). The average positive rate of the 10-year pathogenic test was 22.07%. Three sub-types of influenza virus had an alternate dominance and A (H3N2) was the most common type (1 599/3 973, 40.25%). Totally 88 outbreaks of ILI were reported and occurred mainly in December and January, and the most outbreaks were reported in primary schools(64 events, 72.73%). Early warning signals usually appeared in January and February.n Conclusions:The incidence of influenza in Hangzhou is mainly in winter and spring. Different subtypes of influenza viruses are detected alternately. It is necessary to carry out early warning and prediction in time, and strengthen the monitoring of key populations.