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搜集并分析了全国29个省份(不包括港、澳、台地区)1961~2010年农业洪旱灾害数据,深入探讨了中国洪旱灾害时空变异规律及其对粮食产量的影响。研究结果表明:中国大部分省份农业洪涝、干旱灾害具有明显的突变和趋势特征。中国中部、中西部及西北部洪涝灾害呈显著上升趋势;西北、东北地区及云南等地区干旱灾害呈显著上升趋势。除华北和东北地区外,洪涝灾害对农业的威胁日益严峻,而干旱灾害则无显著变化。这对中国粮食安全形成了重大挑战,尤其是西部以及北部地区粮食灾损率和灾损量显著上升。降水时空分布发生变化以及人类活动共同影响了中国农业洪涝、干旱时空变化特征。
The data of flood and drought disasters in agriculture in 29 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 1961 to 2010 were collected and analyzed, and the spatial and temporal variation of flood and drought disasters in China and their effects on grain yield were discussed in depth. The results show that: in most provinces of China, agricultural floods and drought disasters have obvious characteristics of mutation and trend. The flood disasters in central, central, western and northwestern China showed a significant upward trend; the drought disasters in the northwestern, northeastern and Yunnan regions showed a significant upward trend. Except for North China and Northeast China, the threat of flooding to agriculture is increasingly severe, while there is no significant change in drought disasters. This poses a major challenge to China's food security. In particular, there has been a marked increase in the rate of food losses and disasters in the western and northern regions. Changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation as well as human activities have jointly affected the temporal and spatial characteristics of agricultural floods and drought in China.