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以出行费用、方便性、舒适性和速度为换乘阻抗,建立了基于双约束重力模型的综合客运枢纽换乘量预测模型,采用非集计Logit模型建立并标定了换乘阻抗函数,并以北京市西直门客运枢纽为例对模型进行了实证分析和验证,应用TransCAD软件完成对所建换乘量预测模型的标定且进行换乘量的预测。研究表明综合应用集计与非集计方法建立的换乘量预测模型具有较好的实用性,能较为客观和精确地预测枢纽内各交通方式间换乘量,为综合客运枢纽的规划建设提供科学依据。
Taking the travel cost, convenience, comfort and speed as the transfer impedance, an integrated passenger transportation hub transfer volume forecasting model based on double constrained gravity model is established. The transfer impedance function is established and calibrated using the non-aggregated Logit model. Beijing Xizhimen passenger hub is taken as an example to verify and validate the model. TransCAD software is used to calibrate the model and predict the transfer capacity. The research shows that the model of transfer capacity forecast established by the integrated application of non-aggregate method and non-aggregate method has good practicability and can objectively and accurately predict the transfer capacity of various modes of transport in the hub and provide the planning and construction of integrated passenger transport hub Scientific basis.