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中小型滑坡灾害点多面广、规模小危害大,主要分布在广大农村和小城镇,其预测预报主要依靠群测群防体系,急需一种简单实用的定性评估方法。针对这种情况,将一种基于历史资料的统计分析方法引入滑坡体稳定性的评价中,该方法实质是一种工程类比法,适用于成灾机理还不太明确的中小型滑坡灾害。论文对该方法的原理进行了介绍,结合中小型滑坡灾害稳定状态评估,建立了评估模型。以重庆市奉节滑坡灾害隐患点资料为训练样本,建立了该区域中小型滑坡稳定状态的判别函数,可对该区域未知稳定状态的滑坡点稳定性进行评价。通过验证,发现该方法正确率86%左右,是一种比较可靠的定性评估方法,且简单易行,便于在群测群防体系中推广使用。
Small and medium-sized landslide disaster point a wide range of small-scale large-scale damage, mainly in rural areas and small towns, the prediction and forecasting rely mainly on group measurement system, urgently needed a simple and practical method of qualitative assessment. In view of this situation, a statistical analysis method based on historical data is introduced into the stability assessment of landslide mass. The method is essentially a kind of engineering analogy method, which is applicable to small and medium-sized landslide hazards whose disaster mechanism is not yet clear. The paper introduced the principle of this method, and combined with the stability assessment of small and medium-sized landslide disaster, established the evaluation model. Taking the data of hidden danger spots of landslide disaster in Fengjie of Chongqing as a sample, the discriminant function of stability of small and medium-sized landslide in this area is established and the stability of landslide point in unknown steady state can be evaluated. Through the verification, it is found that this method is accurate about 86%, which is a reliable method of qualitative evaluation. It is simple and easy to be used in the system of group measurement and prevention.