我国税收政策对居民消费的非线性效应——基于城乡收入差距视角的实证分析

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文章基于我国1999—2012年31个省级面板数据,运用面板平滑转移模型,从城乡收入差距视角实证检验税收政策对居民消费的影响效应。研究发现,为了充分发挥税收政策对居民消费增长的促进作用,必须着眼于发挥税收政策的收入分配调节功能,通过优化税收负担和税制结构,把城乡收入差距控制在一个合理的范围。结果表明,在我国目前情况下,税收政策实现有效促进居民消费增长目标的城乡收入差距绝对数最优值为4 967元,城乡收入差距相对数最优值为0.1238。基于促进消费增长的目标以及调节城乡居民分配差距的需要,应进一步重视和强化税收政策的收入分配调节功能。 Based on 31 provincial-level panel data from 1999 to 2012 in our country, this paper empirically tests the effect of tax policy on household consumption from the perspective of urban-rural income disparity using the panel smooth transition model. The study found that in order to give full play to the promotion effect of tax policy on household consumption growth, we must focus on giving full play to the income distribution adjustment function of tax policy, and control the income gap between urban and rural areas within a reasonable range by optimizing tax burden and tax structure. The result shows that the optimal absolute value of the urban-rural income disparity that the tax policy can effectively promote the growth of household consumption is 4967 yuan, and the relative value of the urban-rural income disparity is 0.1238. Based on the objective of promoting the growth of consumption and the need to adjust the distribution gap between urban and rural residents, we should further emphasize and strengthen the regulatory function of revenue distribution in tax policy.
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