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一个人一夜暴富的机会不多,一个国家似乎很容易做到。世界银行和国际货币基金组织(IMF)开出了一张“良方”:简单地进行汇率调整,穷国立马就成了富国。根据世界银行最近公布的一项调查报告,按名义汇率计算,2003年日本的GDP 是中国的3倍多;按购买力平价汇率计算,中国的经济实力已经接近日本的2倍!IMF 也一再指出,中国的人均 GDP 远不止1000美元,按照实际有效汇率计算,中国早就应该摘掉发展中国家的帽子了!数字很容易迷惑人,需要斟酌的一个问题是中国到底有多富裕?这一问题的争论由来已久。经济学家早就注意到,仅从名义汇率角度进行国际比较容易带来误导,于是提出用购买力平价汇率进行调整,并作为国际间产出、收入及其他变量进行比较的基础。吉尔伯特和克拉维斯在支出法购买力平价的 GDP 估计上完成了奠基工作,萨默尔和赫斯顿的工作则引起了经济学家、政冶家们的巨大震动。按照他们的估计,1990年中国的人均GDP 为2700美元,如果中国和美国保持当时的经济增长速度(中国9%,美国2.7%),中国的经济规模可以在10年内赶上美国!这一计算显然距离实际过远。如今,10年已经过去,美国经济依然保持世界强势地位;中国经济取得了世人瞩目的成就,却远没有达到经济强盛、国民富足的水平。尽管购买力平价汇率具有诸多优点,但也有不少缺点,受到很多严厉的批评:第一,购买力平价的计算涉及到150～250多类、几百到几千种规格
There is not much chance for a person to get rich overnight, and a country seems very easy to do. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have come up with a “good side”: a simple exchange rate adjustment, and the poor countries quickly becoming rich. According to a survey recently released by the World Bank, at nominal exchange rates, Japan’s GDP was more than three times that of China in 2003. At purchasing power parity exchange rates, China’s economic strength has nearly doubled that of Japan. The IMF also repeatedly pointed out: China’s GDP per capita far more than 1,000 US dollars, according to the actual effective exchange rate calculation, China should have removed the hat of a developing country! The figures can easily confuse people, one of the issues to be considered is how rich China in the end? The debate has a long history. Economists have long noticed that misleading international comparisons only from a nominal exchange rate perspective suggest that adjustments be made at the PPP exchange rate and serve as a basis for comparisons of international output, income and other variables. Gilbert and Kravis completed the groundbreaking work on the PPP estimate of spending law, while the work of Summers and Hurstton caused tremendous shock for economists and politicians. According to their estimation, the per capita GDP of China was 2,700 U.S. dollars in 1990. If China and the United States maintain their current economic growth rates (9% in China and 2.7% in the U.S.), China’s economy can catch up with the United States within 10 years! Obviously far from the actual. Now that 10 years have passed, the U.S. economy still maintains its strong position in the world. With its remarkable achievements in the Chinese economy, it has far failed to reach the level of economic prosperity and national prosperity. Although PPP exchange rate has many advantages, it has many shortcomings and is subject to many severe criticisms. First, the calculation of purchasing power parity involves more than 150 to 250 types, hundreds to thousands of specifications