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伴随经济的高速增长,中国居民的财富水平和当期可支配收入水平都在显著提高,因而消费决策行为必然随之不断变化。满足基本生存需求以后,耐用品需求急剧扩张,这很大程度上取决于实际拥有的财富水平。本文在定义和测度转型时期城镇居民实际财富水平的基础上,基于新古典需求模型、结构突变检验和变结构的协整分析,进一步研究其对现阶段以乘用车为例的耐用品新增需求的影响。实证结果显示,在对典型耐用品购买决策中,尽管2007年末财富水平的下降对当期购买行为产生了负向影响,但其长期影响仍是正向,且通常情况下财富水平的短期波动对耐用品消费带来的负向冲击效果并不明显。
With the rapid economic growth, the wealth level of Chinese residents and current disposable income levels are significantly increased, so the consumer decision-making inevitably changes. After meeting basic subsistence needs, the demand for durable goods has expanded dramatically, depending largely on the level of wealth actually held. Based on the definition and measurement of the actual wealth level of urban residents during the transitional period, based on neoclassical demand model, structural mutation test and covariation analysis of variable structure, this paper further studies the new addition of durable goods The impact of demand. Empirical results show that the long-term effects are still positive in the purchase decision of typical durables despite the negative impact of the declining wealth level in the end of 2007 on short-term volatility of durable goods The negative impact of consumption is not obvious.