为了有效预测煤层底板破坏深度与控制底板突水灾害,提出了一种基于灰色系统理论的煤层底板破坏深度预测模型。选取采深、煤层倾角、采厚、工作面斜长、断层情况作为底板破坏深度的主要影响因素,利用灰色关联分析确定各因素权重。结合灰色系统理论与工作面现场数据,确定预测底板破坏深度的GM(0,N)模型参数。通过预测工程实例,分析了该模型预测底板破坏深度的可行性与适用条件。研究结果表明,GM(0,N)模型的平均相对误差相比经验公式降低了28.83%,在满足其适用条件时其预测的平均相对误差为14.14%。该模型相比传统经验公式更接近工程实际,在其适用条件下可为现场底板破坏深度预测提供参考。 In order to effectively predict the depth of destruction of coal seam floor and control water inrush, a prediction model of coal seam floor failure depth based on gray system theory is proposed. Select the mining depth, coal seam inclination, mining thickness, face slanting length and fault as the main factors affecting the destructive depth of the floor, and use the gray relational analysis to determine the weight of each factor. Combining with the gray system theory and the working site data, the GM (0, N) model parameters for predicting the failure depth of the bottom plate are determined. Through predicting the engineering example, the feasibility and applicable conditions of the model for predicting the failure depth of the floor are analyzed. The results show that the average relative error of the GM (0, N) model is reduced by 28.83% compared with the empirical formula, and the average relative error of the GM (0, N) model is 14.14% when its applicable conditions are satisfied. Compared with the traditional empirical formula, the model is closer to the engineering practice and can provide a reference for the depth prediction of the floor under the applicable conditions.