砌体结构作为我国房屋的重要结构类型之一,其震害预测是防震减灾工作的重要内容。目前,已发展了多种砌体结构单体震害预测方法。对半经验半理论法、强度判别法、历史震害统计法、专家评估法、模糊类比法、结构理论计算法、动态分析法等几种典型的砌体结构单体震害预测方法进行了详细介绍和评述,并结合汶川地震中北川县擂鼓镇的7栋多层砌体结构震例,对比分析了不同方法的震害预测结果。最后,对砌体结构单体震害预测方法的研究提出了一些探索性的论述。 Masonry structure is one of the most important types of houses in our country. Its earthquake damage prediction is an important part of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. At present, a variety of methods to predict earthquake damage to masonry structures have been developed. Several typical methods of earthquake damage prediction of masonry structures are studied in detail, such as semi-empirical semi-theoretical method, intensity discriminant method, historical earthquake damage statistics method, expert evaluation method, fuzzy analogy method, structural theory method and dynamic analysis method This paper presents the seismic damage prediction results of seven different masonry structures in Leiju Town, Beichuan County, Wenchuan Earthquake. Finally, some exploratory expositions are put forward for the research on the method of earthquake damage prediction for single masonry structures.