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利用1982—2011年的统计数据,构建多项式分布滞后模型,协整分析水利投资与农业经济增长之间的长期均衡关系;采用阿尔蒙(Almon)多项式变换实证估计水利投资滞后分布,考察水利投资各滞后期对农业经济增长的作用趋势。研究结果表明:陕西省农业总产值、农业劳动力人数、年末常用耕地面积、农业机械总动力和水利建设投资之间存在长期均衡关系;水利资本在投入生产后的第3年开始对农业经济增长有显著促进作用,第5年达到最大,第6年下降;水利投资对农业经济增长的动态弹性和长期弹性分别为1.204和1.256。
Using the statistical data from 1982 to 2011, a lag model of polynomial distribution was constructed to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship between water investment and agricultural economic growth. The Almon polynomial transformation was used to estimate the lag distribution of water resources investment. The Role of Lagging on Agricultural Economic Growth. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the total agricultural output value, the number of agricultural labors, the area of common cultivated land at the end of the year, the total power of agricultural machinery and the investment in water conservancy construction. In the third year after the water conservancy capital put into production, Which significantly increased in the fifth year and decreased in the sixth year. The dynamic and long-term elasticity of water investment to agricultural economic growth were 1.204 and 1.256 respectively.