本文引入收入分配这一因素,并在“生产—分配—消费”框架中把握产能过剩形成的基本逻辑。我们发现,对于低收入阶层,低端产品过剩的背后是有效需求不足;对于高收入阶层,低端产品过剩的背后是供需层次错位。结构性产能过剩的症结在于低端产品的有效需求不足和高端产品供给能力不足。总体来看,当前产能过剩仍属相对过剩,它由国内外需求急剧萎缩引发,并且受国内有效消费需求难以提升的制约。 This paper introduces the factor of income distribution and grasps the basic logic of overcapacity in the framework of “production - distribution - consumption ”. We find that for the low-income groups, the low-end products behind the effective demand is insufficient; for the high-income groups, low-end products behind the supply and demand is misplaced. The crux of the structural overcapacity lies in the insufficient effective demand of low-end products and the insufficient supply of high-end products. Overall, the current overcapacity is still a relative surplus, which is triggered by a sharp decline in domestic and foreign demand and is constrained by the difficulty in boosting domestic demand for effective consumption.