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利用2015年美国建筑抗震规范中的衰减模型,结合美国地质勘查局提供的地震灾害地图,利用全概率定理,提出了土体服役期内液化概率的计算方法.算例分析表明,地震参数对土体液化概率具有显著的影响.提出的方法可以合理地考虑服役期内各种可能出现的地震对土体液化评价的影响.
Based on the attenuation model of the American Building Seismic Code in 2015 combined with the earthquake disaster map provided by the US Geological Prospecting Bureau and using the total probability theorem, the calculation method for the liquefaction probability during the service life of the soil is proposed. The example shows that the seismic parameters of the soil The probability of liquefaction has a significant effect.The proposed method can reasonably consider the impact of various possible earthquakes on liquefaction evaluation of soil during the service period.