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本文分析房地产开发综合景气指数在1998年至2011年的走势,进行了序列平稳性的检验分析;在确定序列平稳后运用描述性统计检验、正态性检验和参数核密度估计来检验房地产开发综合景气指数是否服从正态分布;最后,在序列不服从正态分布的基础上运用R/S分析法,结合Hurst指数来判断我国房地价格的变化态势,对我国房地产市场的发展情况进行了解释。
This article analyzes the trend of real estate development comprehensive prosperity index from 1998 to 2011, and conducts the test and analysis of sequence stability. After determining the sequence stability, we use the descriptive statistical test, normality test and parametric kernel density estimate to test the real estate development comprehensive Finally, we use the R / S analysis and the Hurst index to judge the changing trend of the real estate prices in China, and explain the development of the real estate market in our country based on the disagreement of the normal distribution. .