论文部分内容阅读
反映股票市场变化的股价指数变动率与反映经济增长的GDP变动率之间在某个时点出现背离是一种常态现象,但是在一个足够长的时间段内,二者一定是相互匹配的。文章提出了股票市场与经济增长的匹配周期理论,并通过实证检验表明成熟的股票市场受经济增长影响较为明显,不同的股市与经济增长之间存在不同时间长度的匹配周期,这一结果也使匹配周期理论从实证角度得到了印证。
It is a normal phenomenon that the deviation between the stock price index change rate and the GDP change rate that reflects the economic growth at a certain time point reflect the changes in the stock market. However, for a sufficiently long period of time, the two must be matched with each other. The paper puts forward the matching cycle theory between stock market and economic growth. Empirical tests show that the mature stock market is more obviously affected by economic growth, and there are matching periods with different lengths between different stock markets and economic growth. Matching cycle theory from the empirical point of view has been confirmed.