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理性分析全球和中国经济的某些变化和潜在变量因素,可以判断,今年的形势至少会比刚刚过去的马年好很多,尤其是中国经济会更好!外围环境虽然风险点很多,但大的风险发生概率不大,全球经济稳步复苏是大趋势,和平发展是主流。2015年全球经济的领头羊仍然是美国,美国经济保持3%左右的增速,美国经济平稳运行,将助力全球经济度过最艰难的阶段。货币政策的多样化反映了各国经济进入复苏周期的先后顺序,同时也说明:促使经济强劲增长对各国来说,都是第一位的任务,阶梯式复苏是可以期待的。目前,全球经济从东到西,已有全面复苏迹象。率先复苏的绝大多数是实行了超宽松货币政策的国家,比如日本、欧元区;随后可能是中国。2014年中国经济出现下滑,很大程度是政策摇摆或曰不确定性太大所致。对中国经济的信心,来自已经看到了政策“明确”。2015年中国经济最需要明确的政策不仅仅是房地产,更重要的是建立财产社会,要让更多的劳动者有财产,要将能够创造财富、能够拥有财富、能够遗传财富作为“中国梦”的具体目标,用财富追求去激励每一个劳动者。
Rational analysis of the global and Chinese economy, some changes and potential variables, we can judge that this year’s situation will be at least a little better than the horse in the past, especially the Chinese economy will be better! Although the external environment a lot of risk points, but large The probability of occurrence of the risk is not big, the global economy is a steady recovery and the peaceful development is the mainstream. The global economy leader in 2015 is still the United States. The U.S. economy maintains a growth rate of about 3%. The steady operation of the U.S. economy will help the global economy to pass its most difficult stage. The diversification of monetary policy reflects the order in which the economies enter the recovery cycle. It also shows that promoting strong economic growth is a top priority for all countries. The ladder recovery can be expected. At present, the global economy has shown signs of overall recovery from east to west. The overwhelming majority of those countries that have taken the lead in recovery are those that have implemented ultra-loose monetary policies, such as Japan and the euro zone; they may then be China. In 2014, the Chinese economy showed a decline, to a large extent, due to policy sway or excessive uncertainty. Confidence in the Chinese economy comes from the fact that we have already seen the policy “clear ”. In 2015, the most needed clear policy in China’s economy is not just real estate, but more importantly, the establishment of a property society, allowing more laborers to own property, creating wealth, possessing wealth, and inheriting wealth as the “Chinese dream ”The specific goal, with the pursuit of wealth to motivate each worker.