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本研究对2008年1月至2010年2月期间大陆、中国香港、台湾三地赴澳门游客数量的每月统计数据进行汇总,并在此基础上依据这些数据本身的变动规律建立游客赴澳规模的预测模型。结果发现,在总体环境大体不变的情况下,澳门未来的游客规模呈现上升趋势,三大主要来源地内地、香港和台湾也均保持持续上升态势。但是,三地之间的上升状态仍有不同,大陆的上升幅度最快,香港其次,而台湾趋势则平稳上升。该方法通过数据本身的变动规律进行预测,可以克服多元回归模型中由于对自变量的认知有限而带来的预测偏差。它可以与多元回归模型方法作为澳门旅游规模预测的对照方法,从而有助于增强科学预测的可信度和准确度。
This study summarizes the monthly statistics on the number of tourists going to Macao between January 2008 and February 2010 in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and based on this, establishes the scale of tourists going to Australia based on the changes of these data Prediction model. The results showed that in the general environment remains unchanged, the size of the future of tourists in Macau showed an upward trend, the three major sources of land in the Mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan have also continued to rise. However, there are still some differences between the three places, with the mainland rising by the fastest rate, followed by Hong Kong, and the trend in Taiwan steadily rising. The method predicts the variation of the data itself, which can overcome the forecasting bias caused by the limited cognition of independent variables in the multivariate regression model. It can be used in conjunction with the multiple regression model approach as a means of predicting Macau’s tourism size, thereby helping to enhance the credibility and accuracy of scientific predictions.