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最近,国际上有一种声音显著增强,那就是担心日本的财政将会破产。资料显示,日本的国债发行余额占GDP的比重为世界最高,据经济合作与发展组织(OECD)评估,2011年这一占比将达到213%,国债的还本付息成为日本政府沉重的财政负担。由于政府财政的入不敷出而被迫发行国债,在国民储蓄逐年递减、国债信用评级降低的情况下,日本将面临巨大的财政与金融风险。如果政府不增加税收,减少支出,逐年降低国债发行余额,那么到2015年,由日本财政破产产生主权债务危机进而殃及全球的预想可能将不再是空穴来风。
Recently, there has been a marked increase in international voices, that is, fears that Japan’s fiscal will go bankrupt. Statistics show that the balance of Japanese government bond issuance in GDP is the highest in the world. According to the OECD assessment, the share in 2011 will reach 213%. The repayment of principal and interest of government bonds will become a heavy financial burden of the Japanese government burden. Because of the government’s fiscal insufficiency, forced issuance of government bonds, Japan will face tremendous financial and financial risks under the condition of declining national savings and declining government bonds’ credit rating. If the government does not increase tax revenue and expenditures and gradually reduce the balance of government bond issuance year by year, then by 2015, the sovereign debt crisis resulting from Japan’s fiscal bankruptcy will bring disaster to global expectations and may no longer be groundless.